Atletico Nacional vs Once Caldas
Colombia Primera A
Atlético Nacional
Una vez Caldas
noviembre 12, 2026 at 22:00 · Estadio Atanasio Girardot
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Atletico Nacional vs Once Caldas prediction and betting tip for this Colombia Primera A match, kicking off noviembre 12, 2026 at 22:00 at Estadio Atanasio Girardot. Our tip: Double Chance: Home or Draw (1X) (odds 1.28), 82% confidence.
Atletico Nacional vs Once Caldas Preview
Atletico Nacional host Once Caldas in the Colombia Primera A (Clausura - 19) on jueves 12 noviembre 2026, kick-off 22:00 GMT+0100 at Estadio Atanasio Girardot.
Atletico Nacional are 1st in the table with 39 points from 18 games (12-3-3), while Once Caldas sit 8th on 27 points. Atletico Nacional have a 12-point advantage. At home Atletico Nacional have won 7 of 9; Once Caldas have won 2 of 9 on the road.
Atletico Nacional have four wins and one draw in their last 5 league games (W-W-W-D-W), averaging 2,4 goals scored and 1,0 conceded. Once Caldas have three wins and two draws in their last 5 league games (W-D-D-W-W), averaging 1,2 goals scored and 0,4 conceded.
In their last 6 meetings Atletico Nacional have won 4, Once Caldas 1, with 1 draw and an average of 1,8 goals per game. The most recent, in mayo 2026, finished Once Caldas 1-0 Atletico Nacional.
Atletico Nacional average 2.0 goals scored and 0.9 conceded per game this season, with 14 clean sheets and 11 games without scoring, usually in a 4-2-3-1. Once Caldas average 1.4 goals scored and 1.1 conceded per game this season, with 9 clean sheets and 5 games without scoring, usually in a 4-2-3-1.
No injuries or suspensions have been reported for either side so far.
Players to watch: A. Morelos leads Atletico Nacional's scoring with 16 goals and 6 assists; D. Moreno leads Once Caldas's scoring with 17 goals and 1 assist.
Bookmakers make Atletico Nacional the favourites: Atletico Nacional 2.20, draw 3.30, Once Caldas 3.20 (Bet365). Over 2.5 goals is priced at 1.70 and under at 2.10. Both teams to score: yes 1.57, no 2.25.
Our prediction: Atletico Nacional or draw (1X). The model gives Atletico Nacional or a draw a 90% chance, Atletico Nacional have won 4 of their last 5 and they sit 1st, 7 places above Once Caldas.
Primera A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Atlético Nacional | 18 | 12 | 3 | 3 | +20 | 39 |
| 8 | Una vez Caldas | 18 | 7 | 6 | 5 | +4 | 27 |
Season stats
| Atlético Nacional | Una vez Caldas | |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 43 | 39 |
| Won / Drawn / Lost | 30 / 4 / 9 | 15 / 16 / 8 |
| Goals scored (per game) | 86 (2.0) | 55 (1.4) |
| Goals conceded (per game) | 38 (0.9) | 43 (1.1) |
| Scored at home / away (per game) | 2.5 / 1.5 | 1.6 / 1.2 |
| Clean sheets | 14 | 9 |
| Failed to score | 11 | 5 |
| Longest winning run | 5 | 4 |
| Biggest win | 7-1 | 5-1 |
| Usual formation | 4-2-3-1 | 4-2-3-1 |
Top scorers
- A. Morelos 16 goals · 6 assists
- A. Sarmiento 11 goals · 7 assists
- E. Cardona 10 goals · 4 assists
- D. Moreno 17 goals · 1 assist
- J. Zapata 12 goals · 3 assists
Odds (Bet365)
Odds change often — check with your bookmaker before betting.
Data: API-Football · updated 11 Nov 2026, 00:27. Please gamble responsibly (18+).
Model probabilities
Expected goals 1,58 – 0,74 · most likely score 1-0 · data quality 94/100
| Market | Model | Bookmaker* | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico Nacional win | 57,2% | 42,5% | 2,20 | +25.9% |
| Draw | 25,2% | 28,3% | 3,30 | -16.8% |
| Once Caldas win | 17,6% | 29,2% | 3,20 | -43.7% |
| Home or draw (1X) | 82,4% | 70,8% | 1,28 | +5.5% |
| Away or draw (X2) | 42,8% | 57,5% | 1,73 | -26.0% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 67,4% | 78,3% | 1,20 | -19.1% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40,9% | 55,3% | 1,70 | -30.4% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 59,1% | 44,7% | 2,10 | +24.0% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 79,5% | 64,5% | 1,44 | +14.5% |
| Both teams to score | 41,7% | 58,9% | 1,57 | -34.6% |
For comparison, API-Football's own prediction: home 45%, draw 45%, away 10%.
Calculated by our statistical model (Poisson goals model with team strength, home advantage, recent form and expected goals) on 11 Nov 2026, 00:27, model 2.0.0-13d8eb-poisson. *Bookmaker probability with the margin removed (Bet365). Value = model probability × odds − 1. Probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. Please gamble responsibly (18+).
Match Analysis
API-Football win probability (for comparison)
Our tip: Atletico Nacional or draw (1X) — The model gives Atletico Nacional or a draw a 90% chance, Atletico Nacional have won 4 of their last 5 and they sit 1st, 7 places above Once Caldas.
Form (last 5)
Atlético Nacional
WWWDW
2,4 scored · 1,0 conceded per game
Una vez Caldas
WDDWW
1,2 scored · 0,4 conceded per game
Team comparison
Head-to-head
4 Atletico Nacional wins 1 draws 1 Once Caldas wins last 6 meetings
- Una vez Caldas1 - 0Atlético Nacional Primera A
- Atlético Nacional2 - 0Una vez Caldas Copa Colombia
- Una vez Caldas0 - 1Atlético Nacional Copa Colombia
- Una vez Caldas1 - 3Atlético Nacional Primera A
- Una vez Caldas1 - 2Atlético Nacional Primera A
- Atlético Nacional0 - 0Una vez Caldas Primera A
Statistics: API-Football · updated 11 Nov 2026, 00:26. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees — please gamble responsibly (18+).
