Cruzeiro vs Bahia
Brazil: Serie A
Cruzeiro
Bahia
noviembre 6, 2026 at 01:30 · Estádio Mineirão, Belo Horizonte
Won
Cruzeiro vs Bahia prediction and betting tip for this Brazil: Serie A match, kicking off noviembre 6, 2026 at 01:30 at Estádio Mineirão, Belo Horizonte. Our tip: Double Chance: Home or Draw (1X) (odds 1.20), 81% confidence. Final score: 3-2 (1-1). The tip won.
Cruzeiro 3-2 Bahia: Match Report
Cruzeiro beat Bahia 3-2 at Governador Magalhães Pinto in the Brazil Serie A on viernes, coming from behind. It was 1-1 at the break.
C. Olivera opened the scoring for Bahia on 32 minutes, set up by Rodrigo. Kaio Jorge levelled for Cruzeiro on 47 minutes, set up by K. Arroyo. Bruno Rodrigues put Cruzeiro in front on 69 minutes, set up by K. Arroyo. Kaio Jorge made it 3-1 on 86 minutes, set up by L. Romero. A. Veliz pulled one back for Bahia in stoppage time (90+5'), set up by Luciano Juba.
Bahia had 55% of the ball, while Cruzeiro had 21 shots (8 on target) to Bahia's 12 (4). Expected goals finished Cruzeiro 3.25, Bahia 0.64, so Cruzeiro deserved the win.
Referee Rafael Rodrigo Klein showed 4 yellow cards.
Our tip, Cruzeiro or draw (1X), won as Cruzeiro won.
Goals & cards
- 19' Nicolas Acevedo Bahia · Yellow Card
- 32' C. Olivera Bahia · assist Rodrigo
- 45+2' Kaio Jorge Cruzeiro · assist K. Arroyo
- 69' Bruno Rodrigues Cruzeiro · assist K. Arroyo
- 69' Caio Alexandre Bahia · Yellow Card
- 70' Bruno Rodrigues Cruzeiro · Yellow Card
- 76' Jonathan Jesus Cruzeiro · Yellow Card
- 86' Kaio Jorge Cruzeiro · assist L. Romero
- 90+5' A. Veliz Bahia · assist Luciano Juba
- 90+8' Kaua Moraes Cruzeiro · Yellow Card
Match stats
Before the match
Cruzeiro hosted Bahia in the Brazil Serie A (matchday 34) on viernes 6 noviembre 2026, kick-off 01:30 GMT+0100 at Governador Magalhães Pinto in Belo Horizonte. Rafael Rodrigo Klein was the referee.
Cruzeiro are 3rd in the table with 57 points from 33 games (17-6-10), while Bahia sit 6th on 53 points. Cruzeiro have a 4-point advantage. At home Cruzeiro have won 9 of 16; Bahia have won 6 of 16 on the road.
Cruzeiro have four wins and one defeat in their last 5 league games (W-L-W-W-W), averaging 2,0 goals scored and 1,2 conceded. Bahia have two wins, one draw and two defeats in their last 5 league games (L-W-L-D-W), averaging 1,0 goals scored and 1,4 conceded.
In their last 6 meetings Cruzeiro have won 4, Bahia 1, with 1 draw and an average of 3,2 goals per game. The most recent, in mayo 2026, finished Bahia 1-2 Cruzeiro.
Cruzeiro average 1.6 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per game this season, with 8 clean sheets and 4 games without scoring, usually in a 4-2-3-1. Bahia average 1.5 goals scored and 1.3 conceded per game this season, with 9 clean sheets and 5 games without scoring, usually in a 4-3-3.
Cruzeiro will be without Felipe Morais (muscle injury), Gabriel Pec (broken leg), Matheus Pereira (yellow cards), L. Sinisterra (muscle injury), L. Villalba (yellow cards) and William Furtado (yellow cards), and Joao Marcelo (injury) is doubtful. Bahia will be without Leo Vieira (knee injury).
Players to watch: Kaio Jorge leads Cruzeiro's scoring with 12 goals and 2 assists; Luciano Juba leads Bahia's scoring with 11 goals and 1 assist.
Line-ups: Cruzeiro lined up in a 4-2-3-1, Bahia in a 4-2-3-1.
Before kick-off, bookmakers made Cruzeiro the favourites: Cruzeiro 1.75, draw 3.80, Bahia 4.50 (Bet365). Over 2.5 goals is priced at 1.57 and under at 2.35. Both teams to score: yes 1.53, no 2.38.
Our prediction was Cruzeiro or draw (1X). The model gives Cruzeiro or a draw a 90% chance, Cruzeiro have won 4 of their last 5 and they sit 3rd, 3 places above Bahia.
Team news
- Out Felipe Morais Muscle Injury
- Out Gabriel Pec Broken Leg
- Out Matheus Pereira Yellow Cards
- Out L. Sinisterra Muscle Injury
- Out L. Villalba Yellow Cards
- Out William Furtado Yellow Cards
- Doubtful Joao Marcelo Injury
- Out Leo Vieira Knee Injury
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Cruzeiro | 33 | 17 | 6 | 10 | +6 | 57 |
| 6 | Bahia | 33 | 14 | 11 | 8 | +6 | 53 |
Season stats
| Cruzeiro | Bahia | |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 33 | 33 |
| Won / Drawn / Lost | 17 / 6 / 10 | 14 / 11 / 8 |
| Goals scored (per game) | 52 (1.6) | 48 (1.5) |
| Goals conceded (per game) | 46 (1.4) | 42 (1.3) |
| Scored at home / away (per game) | 1.7 / 1.5 | 1.5 / 1.4 |
| Clean sheets | 8 | 9 |
| Failed to score | 4 | 5 |
| Longest winning run | 4 | 4 |
| Biggest win | 3-0 | 3-0 |
| Usual formation | 4-2-3-1 | 4-3-3 |
Top scorers
- Kaio Jorge 12 goals · 2 assists
- Matheus Pereira 9 goals · 7 assists
- Luciano Juba 11 goals · 1 assist
Odds (Bet365)
Odds before kick-off.
Starting line-ups
Otávio Costa, Fagner, Jonathan Jesus, Fabrício Bruno, Gabriel Rojas, Lucas Romero, Zé Lucas, Keny Arroyo, Bruno Rodrigues, Gerson, Kaio Jorge
Ronaldo, Marcos Victor, David Duarte, Kanu, Luciano Juba, Erick, Nicolás Acevedo, Cristian Olivera, Everton Ribeiro, Rodrigo Nestor, Alejo Véliz
Data: API-Football · updated 6 Nov 2026, 03:58. Please gamble responsibly (18+).
Model probabilities
Expected goals 1,94 – 0,99 · most likely score 1-0 · data quality 75/100
| Market | Model |
|---|---|
| Cruzeiro win | 59,4% |
| Draw | 21,8% |
| Bahia win | 18,9% |
| Home or draw (1X) | 81,1% |
| Away or draw (X2) | 40,6% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79,0% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56,1% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 43,9% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 66,3% |
| Both teams to score | 53,9% |
Calculated by our statistical model (Poisson goals model with team strength, home advantage, recent form and expected goals) on 6 Nov 2026, 00:28, model 2.0.0-13d8eb-poisson. Probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. Please gamble responsibly (18+).
Match Analysis
API-Football win probability (for comparison)
Our tip: Cruzeiro or draw (1X) — The model gives Cruzeiro or a draw a 90% chance, Cruzeiro have won 4 of their last 5 and they sit 3rd, 3 places above Bahia.
Form (last 5)
Cruzeiro
WLWWW
2,0 scored · 1,2 conceded per game
Bahia
LWLDW
1,0 scored · 1,4 conceded per game
Team comparison
Head-to-head
4 Cruzeiro wins 1 draws 1 Bahia wins last 6 meetings
- Bahia1 - 2Cruzeiro Serie A
- Bahia1 - 2Cruzeiro Serie A
- Cruzeiro3 - 0Bahia Serie A
- Cruzeiro1 - 1Bahia Serie A
- Bahia4 - 1Cruzeiro Serie A
- Cruzeiro3 - 0Bahia Serie A
Statistics: API-Football · updated 6 Nov 2026, 00:59. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees — please gamble responsibly (18+).
