Alianza Valledupar vs Llaneros
Colombia Primera A
Alianza Valledupar
Llaneros
noviembre 9, 2026 at 02:15 · Estadio Armando Maestre Pavajeau
Won
Alianza Valledupar vs Llaneros prediction and betting tip for this Colombia Primera A match, kicking off noviembre 9, 2026 at 02:15 at Estadio Armando Maestre Pavajeau. Our tip: Under 3.5 Goals (odds 1.25), 84% confidence. Final score: 1-2 (1-2). The tip won.
Alianza Valledupar 1-2 Llaneros: Match Report
Llaneros won 2-1 away at Alianza Valledupar in the Colombia Primera A on lunes. Llaneros led 2-1 at half-time.
J. Castilla opened the scoring for Llaneros on 16 minutes, set up by J. Escobar Salcedo. M. Martinez levelled for Alianza Valledupar on 21 minutes, set up by F. Pardo. Jhon Vasquez won it for Llaneros on 35 minutes from the penalty spot.
Alianza Valledupar had 58% of the ball and 16 shots (3 on target) to Llaneros's 13 (6). Expected goals finished Alianza Valledupar 1.32, Llaneros 1.35, a close game on chances.
Referee Bismark Elias Santiago Pitalua showed 4 yellow cards.
Our tip, Under 3.5 Goals, won with 3 goals in the game.
Goals & cards
- 5' J. Pertuz Llaneros · Yellow Card
- 16' J. Castilla Llaneros · assist J. Escobar Salcedo
- 21' M. Martinez Alianza Valledupar · assist F. Pardo
- 35' Jhon Vasquez Llaneros · Penalty
- 41' D. Quintero Llaneros · Yellow Card
- 70' J. Castillo Alianza Valledupar · Yellow Card
- 84' M. Sierra Llaneros · Yellow Card
- 90+3' J. E. Perez Balcazar Alianza Valledupar · Yellow Card
Match stats
Before the match
Alianza Valledupar hosted Llaneros in the Colombia Primera A (Clausura - 18) on lunes 9 noviembre 2026, kick-off 02:15 GMT+0100 at Estadio Armando Maestre Pavajeau in Valledupar. Bismark Elias Santiago Pitalua was the referee.
Alianza Valledupar are 15th in the table with 18 points from 17 games (5-3-9), while Llaneros sit 13th on 20 points. Only 2 points separate them. At home Alianza Valledupar have won 2 of 9; Llaneros have won 1 of 8 on the road.
Alianza Valledupar have two wins, one draw and two defeats in their last 5 league games (D-W-W-L-L), averaging 1,0 goals scored and 1,0 conceded. Llaneros have two wins and three defeats in their last 5 league games (L-W-L-L-W), averaging 0,8 goals scored and 1,4 conceded.
In their last 3 meetings Alianza Valledupar have won 2, Llaneros 0, with 1 draw and an average of 1,7 goals per game. The most recent, in abril 2026, finished Llaneros 0-0 Alianza Valledupar.
Alianza Valledupar average 0.8 goals scored and 1.6 conceded per game this season, with 8 clean sheets and 13 games without scoring, usually in a 4-2-3-1. Llaneros average 1.0 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per game this season, with 10 clean sheets and 10 games without scoring, usually in a 4-2-3-1.
Line-ups: Alianza Valledupar lined up in a 3-4-3, Llaneros in a 4-1-4-1.
Before kick-off, bookmakers made Alianza Valledupar the favourites: Alianza Valledupar 2.30, draw 3.00, Llaneros 3.40 (Bet365). Over 2.5 goals is priced at 2.20 and under at 1.65. Both teams to score: yes 1.83, no 1.83.
Our prediction was Under 3.5 Goals. The two sides' season numbers point to about 2,3 goals, their last 3 meetings averaged 1,7 goals and recent form points to 2,1 goals a game.
Primera A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Llaneros | 17 | 6 | 2 | 9 | -4 | 20 |
| 15 | Alianza Valledupar | 17 | 5 | 3 | 9 | -12 | 18 |
Season stats
| Alianza Valledupar | Llaneros | |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 36 | 36 |
| Won / Drawn / Lost | 8 / 11 / 17 | 10 / 12 / 14 |
| Goals scored (per game) | 30 (0.8) | 36 (1.0) |
| Goals conceded (per game) | 56 (1.6) | 43 (1.2) |
| Scored at home / away (per game) | 0.9 / 0.7 | 1.2 / 0.8 |
| Clean sheets | 8 | 10 |
| Failed to score | 13 | 10 |
| Longest winning run | 2 | 1 |
| Biggest win | 1-0 | 3-1 |
| Usual formation | 4-2-3-1 | 4-2-3-1 |
Odds (Bet365)
Odds before kick-off.
Starting line-ups
Eduar Beltrán, Sebastián Quiñones, Kevin Moreno, Pedro Franco, Israel Alba, Jair Castillo, Ever Meza, Jhildrey Lasso, Felipe Pardo, Misael Martínez, Jesús Muñoz
Juan Loaiza, Juan Pertuz, Francisco Meza, Dennys Quintero, Jhojan Escobar, Marlon Sierra, Juan Ramirez, Neider Ospina, Juan Castilla, Joel Contreras, Jhon Vásquez
Data: API-Football · updated 9 Nov 2026, 04:58. Please gamble responsibly (18+).
Model probabilities
Expected goals 1,16 – 0,92 · most likely score 1-0 · data quality 92/100
| Market | Model | Bookmaker* | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alianza Valledupar win | 41,3% | 40,9% | 2,30 | -5.0% |
| Draw | 29,8% | 31,4% | 3,00 | -10.6% |
| Llaneros win | 28,9% | 27,7% | 3,40 | -1.7% |
| Home or draw (1X) | 71,1% | 72,3% | 1,28 | -9.0% |
| Away or draw (X2) | 58,7% | 59,1% | 1,67 | -1.9% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 61,6% | 68,8% | 1,36 | -16.2% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 34,6% | 42,9% | 2,20 | -23.8% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 65,4% | 57,1% | 1,65 | +7.9% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 84,2% | 75,0% | 1,25 | +5.2% |
| Both teams to score | 41,4% | 50,0% | 1,83 | -24.3% |
Calculated by our statistical model (Poisson goals model with team strength, home advantage, recent form and expected goals) on 9 Nov 2026, 01:27, model 2.0.0-13d8eb-poisson. *Bookmaker probability with the margin removed (Bet365). Value = model probability × odds − 1. Probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. Please gamble responsibly (18+).
Match Analysis
API-Football win probability (for comparison)
Our tip: Under 3.5 Goals — The two sides' season numbers point to about 2,3 goals, their last 3 meetings averaged 1,7 goals and recent form points to 2,1 goals a game.
Form (last 5)
Alianza Valledupar
DWWLL
1,0 scored · 1,0 conceded per game
Llaneros
LWLLW
0,8 scored · 1,4 conceded per game
Team comparison
Head-to-head
2 Alianza Valledupar wins 1 draws 0 Llaneros wins last 3 meetings
- Llaneros0 - 0Alianza Valledupar Primera A
- Alianza Valledupar3 - 1Llaneros Primera A
- Llaneros0 - 1Alianza Valledupar Primera A
Statistics: API-Football · updated 9 Nov 2026, 01:59. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees — please gamble responsibly (18+).
